Carbon feedstock transition of the petrochemical industry under spatial limitations | prior work – ISPT
Problem Statement
The Rotterdam HIC processes over 45 million tonnes of crude oil annually. Reaching net-zero and circularity by 2050 requires replacing fossil carbon with renewable feedstocks, but the port is fully occupied and renewable processes need significantly more space than fossil ones. However, even under space limitations the transition can still take place, but not without consequences.
Observations
Observation A: Multiple value chains emerge, not one. No single renewable feedstock replaces crude at scale. HVO, syngas, methanol, Fischer-Tropsch, and pyrolysis all play a role, creating a more complex system.
Observation B: Space limitations slow transition and force trade-offs. Even with declining fuel demand, renewable processing needs at least 1.4 times current space. Sequential dependencies, where old assets must go before new ones can be built, delay the timeline.
Observation C: Constrained transition increases import dependency. Limited domestic capacity shifts the region from value-adding hub to buyer on global markets, increasing vulnerability to external shocks.
Conclusion
Transition pathways exist under all scenarios, but space constraints slow the pace and increase vulnerability. The strategic choice is whether to invest in domestic renewable capacity or accept growing import dependency. That choice must be made now.
Scope
Carbon feedstock transition and spatial planning
Specifications
Scenario study, spatial analysis, geopolitical stress testing